编者按：来自海外http://domainnamewire.com的一篇报道，com的新注册量开始锐减。小编用软件大概翻译如下：

.com的注册量增长基数是否为负？

吉姆·比泽斯错了。

.com注册管理机构Verisign的首席执行官Bidzos，去年的第三季度的表现超过预期。由于新兴市场，域名注册高于正常水平。

Bidzos和他的领导团队认为短期提振已经结束。在投资者电话会议上，Bidzos说：

在第三季度，我们看到新增和国际市场，特别是亚洲市场的总增长强劲。虽然我们认为这些市场将继续表现良好，但我们认为第三季度的活动速度将在第四季度连续下滑。同样由于季节性因素的影响，第四季度的净增加量较第三季度减少，如过去两年所见。

他预计该公司将在删除之后在2015年第四季度向基地增加110万到160万.com和.net域名。

它最终增加了460万。

就像我说的，比索是错的。只是在一个好的方式。

去年第四季度，新域名注册的增长惊人，因为域名投资者扩大了域名价值的定义。四个或五个随机字母或数字？尝试六。那些都走了？然后七，八和九。

据悉，2015年第4季度，共有1,060万个新域名注册，较去年同期的730万域名有所增加。

2015年11月是高水月，有480万注册。

eName是一家中国域名注册商，在10月份创造了约15,000个.com注册，突然增加了106万。在一个月。

另一位中国注册商HiChina从大约10万跳到65万。而杭州爱明网络有限公司注册了近一半的域名，注册前一个月只有10万。

你会认为这将是一个好消息。但对于像Verisign这样的垄断，股东珍惜一致性和可预测性。和目前的四分之一一年后的大片一 - 既不提供。

由于一年前比预期好的季度，因此.Com本季度的稳定增长可能会出现跳水。几乎所有在一年前注册的1060万个域名即将到来续费，很难预测其中有多少将被续费。

大约50％的新的.com注册在其第一个周年续费。但是新兴市场的续展率往往较低。在中国，域名投资者的疯狂创造了一个泡沫？很难知道。

它可能是一个二进制问题。 90％或10％将被更新。或者它可能在中间，人们保持他们的“最好的”六个字符域和倾销其余。

鉴于中国市场今年的表现如何，我认为很多人会选择不好赃款。

从财务角度来说，2015年第四季度的繁荣对于Verisign来说是很好的。即使一个域名没有续订，公司在过去一年还是多赚了八块钱租用它。

但投资者喜欢可预测性不是威瑞信的唯一问题。我想象的是，同样的新顶级域名公司，他们继续击败鼓，.com达到顶峰已经制作了新闻稿，以纪念这个场合。

有很大的机会，.com域名的总基数将在今年第三季度下降到第四季度。当这种情况发生时，有些人会推动新TLD导致.com达到峰值的叙述。

在现实中，在是中国 .com中创建了一个泡沫，而且气泡正在放气。

但这可能不是造成头条新闻的故事。这将是.com坏的开始。

原文：

Is .com’s growing base of registrations about to go negative?

Jim Bidzos was wrong.

Bidzos, the CEO of .com registry Verisign, was celebrating a better-than-expected third quarter last year. Domain name registrations were higher than normal thanks to emerging markets.

Bidzos and his leadership team thought the short-term boost was over. On an investor conference call, Bidzos said:

During the third quarter, we saw strength in gross additions coming out of emerging and international markets, particularly in Asia. While we believe these markets will continue to perform well, we believe the pace of activity we saw during the third quarter will slow sequentially in the fourth quarter. Also due to seasonal factors, the fourth quarter tends to have fewer net additions than the third quarter, as was seen in the last two years.

He predicted the company would add 1.1 million to 1.6 million .com and .net domain names to the base in Q4 2015 after deletions.

It ended up adding 4.6 million.

Like I said, Bidzos was wrong. Just in a good way.

The fourth quarter last year saw stunning growth in new domain name registrations as domain investors expanded their definition of what makes a domain name valuable. Four or five random letters or digits? Try six. Those are gone? Then seven, eight and nine.

All told, 10.6 million new .com domain names were registered in Q4 2015, up from 7.3 million in the same quarter the year before.

November 2015 was the high water month with 4.8 million registrations.

eName, a Chinese domain name registrar that generated about 15,000 .com registrations in October, suddenly pulled in 1.06 million. In a single month.

HiChina, another Chinese registrar, jumped from about 100,000 to 650,000. And HangZhou AiMing Network Co. registered nearly a half million domain names after registering just 10,000 the month before.

You’d think this would be good news. But for a monopoly like Verisign, shareholders cherish consistency and predictability. And the current quarter–one year after the blockbuster one–offers neither.

.Com’s steady growth could be heading for a cliff this quarter thanks to the better-than-expected quarter a year ago. Almost all of those 10.6 million domain names registered a year ago are coming up for renewal and it’s hard to predict how many of them will be renewed.

About 50% of new .com registrations are renewed on their first anniversary. But renewal rates tend to be lower in emerging markets. And in China, where domain investor frenzy created a bubble? It’s hard to know.

It might be a binary question. Either 90% or 10% will be renewed. Or it could be in the middle, with people keeping their “best” six character domains and dumping the rest.

Given how the Chinese market has fared this year, I think a lot of people will choose to not throw good money after bad.

Financially speaking, the Q4 2015 boom was good for Verisign any way you look at it. Even if a domain isn’t renewed, the company still got an extra eight bucks for renting it over the past year.

But investors that like predictability aren’t Verisign’s only problem. I imagine the same new top level domain name companies who keep beating the drum about .com hitting a peak have already crafted press releases to mark this occasion.

There’s a great chance that the total base of .com domain names will fall in Q4 compared to Q3 of this year. When that happens, some people will push the narrative that new TLDs have caused .com to peak.

In reality, it was China. It created a bubble in .com and that bubble is deflating.

But that might not be the story that makes headlines. And that would be bad for .com.

来源：ANDREW ALLEMANN 域名百科